Afghanistan, the Canadian Election and Candour
Telling the truth is the only way to solve systemic problems.
Hello strangers! 👋👋
How was the summer?
I’m pulling together the next series of Rule Breakers and I am pumped! In the meantime, I’m popping up because the call of the Canadian election and withdrawal from Afghanistan have riled me up and I need to share why.
These two events might seem unconnected yet there is a common thread: both failed to communicate openly and honestly.
So today’s Rule Breaker is focused on why candour is so essential for fixing our issues.
For the newbies, I highlight entrepreneurs, social innovators and deep thinkers who challenge the old way of doing things so that more people can thrive.
For the regulars, I love having you as part of this community of curious folks who care about creating a better world. Now, I’m hoping you can help me out by sharing this with others (drop it in a Slack channel, post a meaningful line on Twitter or forward this email to a few folks.)
If you’re reading for the first time, join the community!
Opening Spiel
A highlight of my summer has been a trip to Victoria and Edmonton to see my partner Dan’s family. A bonus is that we timed it with his dad’s annual summer BBQ (COVID safe version, albeit) and stepmom’s milestone birthday.
To prepare for the BBQ we (mainly Dan) set up the tables and power washed chairs that had sat empty these past 18 months. To accommodate socially distanced seating we used a table that had seen better days. Yet, a colourful plastic table cloth and some pins to hold it in place made it a perfect place to enjoy Dan’s dad’s famous brisket.
Of course, what would be a family gathering without talk about politics. The two liveliest discussions were about the calling of the Canadian election and the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
There were similarities between those two topics and the old table covered in a plastic tablecloth.
Like the old table, the calling of the Canadian election and the Afghanistan withdrawal are draped in fanciful overlay to cover up what’s really going on underneath.
Unlike the old table, the election and withdrawal aren’t rendered serviceable. With a nice covering, the table is transformed into a sturdy, sanitary and appetizing surface to eat off of. Exactly what a table is meant to do.
The election and withdrawal, however, only suffer from the spin doctor messaging placed on top to make it seem palatable. The evasive and incomplete messaging cover-up faulty systems that cause harm and lead us away from addressing the real issues.
And that brings us to what we’ll dive into: why candour, and particularly the lack of it causes huge damage.
I’m going to cover:
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan - what was and should have been said
The calling of the Canadian election - what was and should have been said
Why this matters
What the heck you and I can do about it
Let’s explore more.
The US and Allies withdrawal from Afghanistan
What was said
The best reference for how Biden is positioning the Afghanistan withdrawal is the ~3,500 word speech he gave on August 31, 2021.
He called the withdrawal and evacuation mission an “extraordinary success”. After basically quoting Borat, he dove into more reasons on why it was such a triumph.
Below are more quotes for details on how he put it. I share the gist of what he said for a faster read.
90% of Americans got out and the Allies jointly evacuated 100,000 Afghans who were in danger.
“Our Operation Allied Rescue ended up getting more than 5,500 Americans out. We got out thousands of citizens and diplomats from those countries that went into Afghanistan with us to get Bin Laden. We got out locally employed staff at the United States Embassy and their families, totalling roughly 2,500 people. We got thousands of Afghan translators and interpreters and others who supported the United States out as well.”
“The bottom line: Ninety percent of Americans in Afghanistan who wanted to leave were able to leave.”
“As for the Afghans, we and our partners have airlifted 100,000 of them. No country in history has done more to airlift out the residents of another country than we have done.”
The US is still committed to helping people leave.
“For those remaining Americans, there is no deadline. We remain committed to get them out if they want to come out.”
“[For Afghans] we will continue to work to help more people leave the country who are at risk. We’re far from done.”
“[Our efforts] will include ongoing efforts in Afghanistan to reopen the airport, as well as overland routes, allowing for continued departure to those who want to leave and deliver humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan.”
It would have been a difficult mission even if it had started earlier.
“I take responsibility for the decision. Now, some say we should have started mass evacuations sooner and “Couldn’t this have been done in a more orderly manner?” I respectfully disagree. Imagine if we had begun evacuations in June or July, bringing in thousands of American troops and evacuating more than 120,000 people in the middle of a civil war. There still would have been a rush to the airport. A breakdown in confidence and control of the government. And it still would have been very difficult and dangerous mission.”
He left because he was honouring the commitment made by Trump, it is hella expensive to keep funding and it is really not the US’ place to remake other countries.
“My predecessor, the former president, signed an agreement with the Taliban to remove U.S. troops by May 1… So we were left with a simple decision: Either follow through on the commitment made by the last administration and leave Afghanistan, or say we weren’t leaving and commit another tens of thousands more troops. Going back to war. That was the choice, the real choice. Between leaving or escalating. I was not going to extend this forever war. And I was not extending a forever exit.”
“After more than $2 trillion spent in Afghanistan — costs that researchers at Brown University estimated would be over $300 million a day for 20 years in Afghanistan. For two decades. Yes. The American people should hear this: $300 million a day for two decades. You take the number of one trillion, as many say, that’s still $150 million a day for two decades.”
“This decision about Afghanistan is not just about Afghanistan. It’s about ending an era of major military operations to remake other countries.”
What should have been said
The main thing he got right was his explanation for leaving. At $150 - 300 million a day (depending on estimates), an economy trying to recover from COVID and stave off the Chinese from taking the world superpower title cannot afford that in the recurring budget.
I also agree with his point that the US shouldn’t be remaking other countries. They went into Afghanistan for US security reasons because of the 9/11 attacks. Valid reason or not, that was the motive. Civilian security is the reason for an army, not exporting values and governing structures.
BUT - and there is a big massive but here - Biden completely left out a candid picture of who is still left in Afghanistan and the US’ accountability for them a) existing in the first place and b) getting them out.
It is estimated that over 300,000 Afghan civilians supported the US in the past 20 years as interpreters, fixers, clerical workers and beyond. That figure does not include all the other people who either worked or supported the NATO Allies (Canada, Britain, France, Germany etc.). Nor does that figure include the people indirectly supportive of the war effort to liberalize Afghanistan, such as female journalists, politicians and even makeup artists who are now hiding to save their lives.
In his remarks, he essentially said: “well, we got 20-30% of the people who helped us these past 20 years. The rest are in grave danger and we’ll use UN Security Council resolutions to help them. What a great success!”
Here’s my take on what Biden should have added to his remarks.
The withdrawal mission was not a full success.
There are many people still in Afghanistan that are in danger because of their involvement with us and our Allies over the years.
We created the opportunity for them to do meaningful work to reshape their country and in the end were not able to secure a safe place for them to live.
We knew the Taliban were at their most powerful since 2001 and yet our intelligence failed to give us insight into how fast they would take over the country.
Furthermore, our administrative processes failed to identify, validate and evacuate all the local individuals who wanted and needed our help to leave the country.
I hold deep regret.
Of all the reports I’ve read, Stephen Colbert has done one of the best jobs of saying what was really going on. Although he is funny, it’s sad that we rely on satirical news shows for the truth of what’s really happening.
The Calling of the Canadian Election
What was said
This one is a bit more straightforward.
On August 15, 2021 Justin Trudeau called a snap election. In his twelve minute press conference (video here) it is a minute 12:21 when he finally addresses the election and his reason for calling Canadians to the polls.
Trudeau’s reason for calling the election? Canadians deserve to choose how our COVID recovery unfolds.
“In this important moment, maybe the most important since 1945, and certainly in most of our lifetimes, who thinks Canadians shouldn’t have a say? After making it through 17 months of nothing like we’ve ever experienced, Canadians deserve to choose what the next 17 months, what the next 17 years and beyond will look like”
That’s it. That was all he said.
Pushing for more information, a Toronto Star reporter asked why is he calling an election when COVID rates are rising, it’s gonna cost lots of money and he has the support of the NDP. 🤨
Our leader’s response? The same spiel that Canadians deserve a right to give the government a mandate. Here are his exact remarks to really appreciate how much of an effort he made to cover up the truth.
“This is a really important moment in Canada’s history. For the past two years, for the past 17 months, specifically of the pandemic, we’ve been making really big, really consequential decisions. And in the last election, nobody was talking about what we might do in a pandemic. So the government, and indeed parliament, needs an opportunity to get a mandate from Canadians, to hear from Canadians on how to end this pandemic, how to build back better in really meaningful ways. As Canadians know, this is a moment where we’re going to be taking decisions that will last not just for the coming months, but for the coming decades, and Canadians deserve their say. That’s exactly what we’re going to give them.”
What should have been said
Trudeau should have stated the real reason: he believes the Liberals can gain a majority of the votes and this will help the party pass bills easier.
Easier passing of bills = more progress. More progress = better recovery and foundation for a brighter future.
This easily is positioned in the best interest of Canadian citizens and exposes the political system that he is playing within. A majority government in a time of consequence is a boon to our future.
He should have acknowledged what observers had been saying months before he called the September election. Plain speaking Singh, leader of the NDP party, said on June 24 that an election would only be in the interest of the party, not Canadians: “they are calling an election because they want all the power”.
Trudeau could have also added to his remarks after the fact. The Economist put it perfectly in their August 21 article “The country does not need an election now. But the prime minister does.”
The article goes on to put it even more bluntly:
“The main reason for holding an election now, rather than waiting until the end of the parliamentary term in 2023, is probably that a later contest would be harder for the Liberals to win.”
Everyone else is saying it, Trudeau should have said it too.
Why this matters
At the individual level, this impacts the perception of Biden and Trudeau. People will question their intentions and honesty of other things they say. This will not help them win confidence in their leadership. With Trudeau, this is likely only fuelling the unacceptable protests following his campaign.
There is a bigger structural issue here, though.
Not saying the real truth behind these hugely consequential events covers up some very flawed systems and dire issues.
If we don’t admit that there are hundred of thousands of Afghans still stuck in the country and it is the US and its Allies fault they are in peril then there will not be a successful effort to help them.
If we do not admit that the reason for calling an election was because the Liberals believe they have the best chance right now to win a majority then we will continue to avoid critical issues around how the government functions, including electoral reform.
And - this feeds a bigger cultural issue.
Misinformation, lies, non-truths, half-truths, echo chambers - whatever you want to call it - put out harmful and incorrect information and this issue is rampant in today’s society. The leaders of our culture are only enabling this destructive societal trait.
Yes, this breeds distrust of elites and a populist agenda. But more so - this gives everyone in North America a pass to evade the truth themselves.
If Biden or Trudeau can’t come clean on areas they personally lead, how can we expect society to stop spreading lies about vaccines and COVID, to address climate change, to remove systemic racism, and on and on?
Like what you’ve been reading so far on Rule Breaker?
What the heck can you and I do about it
What if we all could be candid - especially when the message isn’t the optimistic, pretty version people want to hear?
My team would balk at the targets we’d set each quarter when I was COO in VC-backed startup land. I’d tell them plainly: we have these targets because we took a lot of money from VCs by telling them we’d give them a crazy return on their investment and if we want to continue to do the work we find meaningful and keep getting money, we have to aim for this levels of success.
They knew the role the venture capital system played in our aggressive growth targets and they also understood that this enabled us to do the work we thought was important. Candid and still motivating.
What if we were okay with asking the tough questions - especially when it puts leaders on the spot?
I always rooted for the person who would stand up in the BMO Town Hall and ask the CEO the question that was on everyone’s mind but no one was willing to ask. Asking the though questions pushes the person talking to realize we all knew they aren’t telling the full story. Maybe from there we get a more candid answer.
What if we could be comfortable with hearing bad news - especially if it hurts us?
We like things to be presented nicely. A white tablecloth (or a really nice plastic one at a backyard BBQ) is considered nicer than dining on a scratched plastic table. But we need to see the scratches in our society to rememdy them.
Jacinda Ardern is often cited as one of the most effective political leaders. One of her observers cites this is because “she doesn’t peddle in misinformation; she doesn’t blame-shift; she tries to manage everyone’s expectations at the same time [as] she offers reassuring notes”. As a Jacinda fan girl, I wish we could all take a page from her.
Parting words
Telling the truth is hard. Different vantage points and desires to lead people in a particular direction cloud simple messages.
But - covering up the truth is damaging. There were no harmful consequences as a result of Dan and I covering up that table at the BBQ. There are huge consequences of covering up a botched withdrawal from Afghanistan and a strategic gamble on a political voting system.
That’s the hard work we as citizens of a collective community have to commit to doing. It’s a shame when our more prominent leaders can’t live up to that role. My hope is that the masses can still retain that core value of a thriving community, one message at a time.
If you want to help Afghans, Global News compiled a great list of organizations you can sponsor.
Thanks to Dan for editing.
If you got to this point, can you do me a solid and share with others? I want to get Rule Breaker to more folks and need your help! 🙌💕
🕵🏻♀️
Jess